Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Holds Strong as Market Braces for One Final Dip, Says Transform Ventures CEO Michael Terpin

In the volatile world of cryptocurrency, where fortunes can be made or lost in the blink of an eye, few voices carry the weight of experience quite like Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures. Speaking at Consensus Hong Kong 2025, Terpin delivered a sobering yet calculated perspective on the current state of the crypto market, arguing that what we’re witnessing is not chaos, but rather the predictable unfolding of Bitcoin’s well-established four-year cycle.

“I was skeptical when people thought the bottom would be at $80,000 and that we’d only face a six-week bear market,” Terpin stated, his tone reflecting the seasoned investor’s reluctance to buy into premature optimism. “That seemed ridiculous to me.”

The market’s recent attempts to call a bottom at $60,000, with predictions of an immediate recovery, struck Terpin as equally premature. “That also seems a little too soon,” he cautioned, suggesting that market participants might be underestimating the depth and duration of the current correction.

What makes Terpin’s analysis particularly compelling is his insistence that the market is behaving exactly as historical patterns would predict. Rather than signaling a broken cycle or a new paradigm, he sees the current downturn as the natural progression of Bitcoin’s halving-driven rhythm—a rhythm that has governed the cryptocurrency’s price action with remarkable consistency since its inception.

The Halving: Bitcoin’s Built-In Supply Shock Mechanism

At the heart of Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior lies the halving event, a fundamental feature of the cryptocurrency’s design that occurs approximately every four years. This mechanism cuts the reward miners receive for validating transactions in half, effectively reducing the rate at which new bitcoins enter circulation.

This programmed scarcity is central to Bitcoin’s value proposition. By slowing the inflation rate over time and ultimately capping total supply at 21 million coins, the halving reinforces Bitcoin’s positioning as “digital gold”—a store of value in an increasingly digital world.

Historically, these halving events have preceded major bull markets, as the reduced supply of new coins meets steady or rising demand. The supply shock created by each halving has been a reliable catalyst for price appreciation, though the timing and magnitude of these moves have varied.

A Cycle of Remarkable Precision

Terpin’s analysis draws attention to the striking consistency of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. “We are exactly where we should be,” he argued, pointing to the well-established pattern anchored around Bitcoin’s halving events.

One of the most reliable elements of prior cycles has been the rough timing of the bubble peak and subsequent unwind. “The bull market popped in the fourth quarter after the halving,” Terpin notes, adding that the speculative blow-off phase typically lasts between nine and 11 months. “This time it was 11 months.”

The parallels to the previous cycle are striking. “The highs, the bubble popping, were on Nov. 10, 2021,” Terpin explains. “The lows were right after FTX declared bankruptcy on Nov. 10, 2022. Exactly a year to the day.”

Even the broader four-year rhythm has shown remarkable precision. One complete cycle was off by just three days from a clean four-year interval, while the first halving cycle was only a few weeks off in terms of its peak-to-trough structure, according to Terpin’s analysis.

The “One More Point of Pain” Thesis

While Terpin stops short of predicting another year-long drawdown, he believes the market likely faces “one more point of pain” in what he describes as a fragile environment. His analysis suggests that Bitcoin could revisit levels in the $50,000s or even the $40,000s before a durable bottom is formed.

This perspective stands in stark contrast to the more optimistic calls that have been circulating in the market. Terpin’s caution reflects a deeper understanding of market psychology and the mechanics of Bitcoin’s cycle, rather than a pessimistic outlook on the asset’s long-term potential.

The current market environment, characterized by regulatory uncertainty, macroeconomic headwinds, and the lingering effects of the FTX collapse, creates the perfect conditions for one final shakeout before the next phase of the cycle begins.

Breaking the Cycle? Not This Time

Interestingly, Terpin’s analysis comes at a time when some market participants are questioning whether Bitcoin’s four-year cycle might be breaking down. Crypto asset manager Bitwise recently suggested that Bitcoin could break its four-year cycle in 2026, citing changing market dynamics and increased institutional adoption.

However, Terpin’s data-driven approach suggests otherwise. The precision with which Bitcoin has adhered to its cyclical pattern, even in the face of unprecedented market events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the FTX collapse, indicates that the underlying mechanics remain intact.

The halving mechanism, combined with the psychological and technical factors that drive market cycles, continues to provide a reliable framework for understanding Bitcoin’s price action. While external events can influence the timing and magnitude of moves within the cycle, the fundamental rhythm appears to be holding strong.

What This Means for Investors

For investors navigating the current market environment, Terpin’s analysis offers both caution and opportunity. The prospect of one more significant dip before the next bull market begins suggests that patience may be rewarded, but also that premature buying could lead to further losses.

The key, according to Terpin’s framework, is to recognize that we are in the final stages of the current cycle’s correction phase. The timing of the next bull market will likely be determined by when the market has fully processed the excesses of the previous cycle and when the reduced supply from the most recent halving begins to create meaningful scarcity.

For long-term believers in Bitcoin’s thesis, this analysis provides a roadmap for navigating the current uncertainty. The cycle will continue, the halving will continue to reduce supply, and eventually, the next bull market will begin. The question is not whether this will happen, but when—and Terpin’s data suggests we may need to be patient just a bit longer.

As the crypto market continues to mature, the predictability of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle stands as a testament to the power of its underlying design. In a world of increasing uncertainty, this consistency offers a rare anchor for investors seeking to understand the future of digital assets.

Tags:

Bitcoin cycle, crypto market analysis, Michael Terpin, Transform Ventures, Bitcoin halving, four-year cycle, crypto bear market, digital gold, supply shock, market bottom, Consensus Hong Kong, institutional adoption, FTX collapse, crypto investment strategy, Bitcoin price prediction

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