Here’s how bitcoin’s price rise could be fueled by job-stealing AI software

Bitcoin’s Future in an AI World: Why Central Banks, Not Code, May Decide Its Fate

Bitcoin has long been hailed as the decentralized alternative to traditional finance—a digital asset built on code, immune to the whims of central banks and governments. But in a new research note, Greg Cipolaro, global head of research at NYDIG, argues that the cryptocurrency’s fate in an AI-driven future may hinge less on its underlying technology and more on the macroeconomic forces shaped by central banks.

Cipolaro’s analysis suggests that artificial intelligence will impact Bitcoin primarily through its effects on the broader economy—specifically, through growth, employment, real interest rates, and liquidity. Bitcoin, he writes, sits downstream of these forces, meaning its price and adoption will be shaped by how AI reshapes the labor market and, in turn, how policymakers respond.

The AI Labor Disruption Scenario

One of the most immediate concerns is the potential for AI to displace human workers at scale. If automation cuts jobs and wages, consumer demand could weaken, and in a worst-case scenario, falling incomes could strain debt payments and pressure asset prices. These fears aren’t theoretical—this week, Jack Dorsey’s fintech firm Block announced it was cutting staff by about 40%, citing AI-enabled efficiency as a key factor. Dorsey’s move echoes broader anxieties about AI-driven job losses, which have already rattled markets.

In such a scenario, policymakers might respond with lower interest rates or increased fiscal spending to stabilize the economy. Historically, such liquidity injections have been bullish for Bitcoin, which has often tracked shifts in global money supply. If central banks flood the system with cash to offset AI-driven economic shocks, Bitcoin could benefit as investors seek alternative stores of value.

The Productivity Boom Alternative

But what if AI’s impact is less disruptive and more transformative? If automation boosts productivity and economic growth without major job losses, real yields could rise, and central banks might keep monetary policy tight. Higher real rates have historically weighed on Bitcoin by raising the opportunity cost of holding it and making risk assets less attractive.

Cipolaro argues that AI’s ultimate impact on Bitcoin will depend on which of these two paths the economy takes. If AI triggers a deflationary shock and forces central banks to print money, Bitcoin could thrive. If it fuels a productivity boom that raises real yields, Bitcoin could struggle.

Historical Parallels: From Steam Engines to Computers

The anxiety around AI’s impact on jobs echoes past moments of technological upheaval. The steam engine displaced manual labor in factories and on farms. Electrification rewired entire industries. Later, computers and the internet automated clerical work and reshaped retail, media, and finance. Each wave triggered fears of permanent job loss—factory mechanization sparked labor unrest in the early 1900s, personal computers cut typist pools in the 1980s and 1990s, and e-commerce hollowed out brick-and-mortar retail roles.

Yet aggregate demand did not collapse. Productivity rose, new industries emerged, and displaced workers eventually found new roles—even if the transition was painful and uneven. Cloud computing, for instance, was unthinkable before the dawn of the internet.

Cipolaro argues that AI may follow a similar pattern. As a general-purpose technology, it requires firms to redesign workflows and invest in complementary tools. Over time, that process tends to expand productive capacity rather than shrink it.

“The implication is not that disruption will be painless, but that the equilibrium response to new technology has historically been integration, not obsolescence,” Cipolaro wrote. “Society’s response to AI will likely follow the same pattern.”

For Bitcoin, this distinction matters. If AI ultimately lifts long-term growth, the structural backdrop could differ from the short-term shocks that often drive liquidity injections.

Agentic Payments and Bitcoin’s Next Frontier

Beyond macroeconomic forces, AI could also drive Bitcoin adoption through what’s known as agentic payments—software paying other pieces of software without human involvement. One of Bitcoin’s earliest visions centered on machine-to-machine payments, and AI may be the necessary tool to make them a reality.

However, the incentives aren’t currently there for a widespread rollout. Credit cards bundle rewards and short-term credit, features that stablecoins do not yet match, Cipolaro noted.

The Human Response: The Ultimate Decider

Ultimately, while the rise of AI brings new challenges, what matters most is the human response to the disruption it brings. If AI triggers a deflationary shock and forces central banks to turn the money printer back on, or if it fuels a productivity boom that raises real yields, Bitcoin will reflect that.

In this sense, Bitcoin’s future in an AI world may be less about its code and more about the decisions of central bankers, policymakers, and the broader economy. As Cipolaro’s analysis suggests, the fate of the world’s most famous cryptocurrency may depend not on whether AI can mine it more efficiently, but on how society chooses to navigate the economic transformation it brings.

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“Bitcoin’s fate in an AI world may hinge less on its code and more on central banks.”
“AI could trigger a deflationary shock, forcing central banks to print money—bullish for Bitcoin.”
“If AI boosts productivity, real yields could rise, weighing on Bitcoin.”
“Jack Dorsey’s Block cuts 40% of staff, citing AI-enabled efficiency.”
“Bitcoin’s future depends on how society responds to AI-driven economic transformation.”
“AI may drive Bitcoin adoption through agentic payments—software paying software.”
“Historical tech disruptions (steam, electricity, computers) eventually expanded productive capacity.”
“Central banks’ response to AI-driven shocks will shape Bitcoin’s price trajectory.”
“Bitcoin sits downstream of growth, employment, real interest rates, and liquidity.”
“AI’s impact on Bitcoin is less about code and more about macroeconomic forces.”,