Crypto Prediction Platform Polymarket Under Fire Again as Mysterious Accounts Bet Big on Iran-US Ceasefire

In a new twist of controversy, cryptocurrency-based prediction platform Polymarket is once again facing intense scrutiny after a series of anonymous accounts placed nearly $70,000 in bets predicting a US-Iran ceasefire before March 31. The wagers have sparked fresh concerns about insider trading and the platform’s role in potentially profiting from geopolitical chaos.

The Latest Betting Frenzy

According to a report by The Guardian, multiple newly created Polymarket accounts—each less than a week old—have collectively wagered almost $70,000 on the outcome of a potential ceasefire between the United States and Iran. This comes just months after similar suspicious activity on the platform, when accounts correctly predicted US military actions in Venezuela and the kidnapping of its president, netting $400,000 in profits.

The conflict between the US and Iran has sent shockwaves through global markets, with oil prices and stocks experiencing extreme volatility. President Donald Trump’s erratic public statements, including threats to strike Iranian power plants followed by sudden reversals, have only added to the uncertainty. The situation has left investors scrambling to interpret every signal, and Polymarket users are now betting heavily on whether a diplomatic resolution will materialize.

Insider Trading Allegations Resurface

Experts and analysts are raising red flags over the timing and scale of these bets. Ben Yorke, a former researcher at CoinTelegraph, told The Guardian that the accounts “definitely [look like] someone with some degree of inside info.” Yorke explained that the accounts may have split from a single original wallet, a tactic often used to obscure the identity of large investors or hide insider trading activity.

“Typically, when you see wallet splitting and deliberate attempts to obfuscate identity, it’s one of two scenarios: either a very large investor trying to shield their position from market impact, or insider trading,” Yorke said.

The controversy is compounded by the fact that the vast majority of Polymarket users are betting against a ceasefire by March 31, with only 17% backing the “Yes” outcome. However, the odds shift dramatically for a ceasefire by the end of the year, with 76% predicting it will happen by December 31.

A Platform Plagued by Scandal

Polymarket has long been criticized for its role in enabling what many see as morally repugnant betting on deadly conflicts. The platform has done little to address these concerns, and recent reports suggest it has been filling its social media feeds with outright lies and misinformation. Last week, the New York Times reported that Polymarket’s own social media accounts have been spreading falsehoods, further eroding trust in the platform.

Competitors Take a Different Approach

While Polymarket remains mired in controversy, its main competitor, Kalshi, is taking steps to distance itself from similar scandals. Kalshi, which is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and operates officially in the US, has announced new measures to combat insider trading. Last month, the company publicly accused video editor Artem Kaptur—who worked for YouTube star MrBeast before being suspended—of insider trading and reported him to federal regulators.

This week, Axios reported that Kalshi is now blocking athletes, coaches, and political candidates from trading on the platform, marking a significant escalation in its anti-insider trading efforts. These moves highlight the growing divide between Polymarket’s laissez-faire approach and Kalshi’s attempts to build a more regulated and trustworthy prediction market.

The Broader Implications

The ongoing scandals surrounding Polymarket raise serious questions about the ethics and legality of prediction markets, especially when they intersect with real-world conflicts and political events. Critics argue that these platforms not only profit from human suffering but also create perverse incentives for bad actors to manipulate outcomes for financial gain.

As the March 31 deadline looms, all eyes will be on Polymarket to see whether these mysterious bets pay off—and whether the platform will finally take meaningful steps to address the systemic issues that have plagued it for months.

Tags: Polymarket, Iran-US ceasefire, insider trading, cryptocurrency, prediction markets, geopolitical betting, Donald Trump, Venezuela, Kalshi, MrBeast, Artem Kaptur, oil prices, stock market volatility, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, misinformation, social media, ethical concerns, regulation, crypto scandals

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