Exclusive: The AI Stock Market Shakeup—Anthropic Surges While OpenAI Stumbles, and SpaceX Eyes a $1.75 Trillion IPO

By [Your Name], TechCrunch Senior Reporter

In the high-stakes world of private company share trading, few have a clearer view of the shifting tides than Glen Anderson, president of Rainmaker Securities. Since 2010, Anderson has watched the secondary market for late-stage startups evolve from a niche corner of finance into a bustling arena where billions of dollars chase a handful of coveted names. Today, he says, the landscape is more crowded than ever—but the real drama is unfolding among just three titans: Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX.

Anthropic: The New Darling of the Secondary Market

If there’s one stock that’s become the white whale of Rainmaker’s marketplace, it’s Anthropic. “The hardest stock to source in our marketplace is Anthropic,” Anderson told TechCrunch from his Miami home. “There’s just no sellers.”

This insatiable demand isn’t just a blip. According to Anderson, buyers have signaled they’re ready to deploy $2 billion into Anthropic shares, while OpenAI’s secondary market is struggling to move even $600 million in sell orders. The shift is stark: for years, investors bet on everyone in the AI race, but now, momentum has clearly swung toward Anthropic.

What sparked this surge? A very public standoff with the Department of Defense turned out to be a gift in disguise. Initially seen as a liability, the controversy made Anthropic a hero in the eyes of many, rallying public support and amplifying its differentiation from OpenAI. “The app got more popular, people rallied around the company as kind of a hero, taking on big government,” Anderson explained. “I think it amplified the story and made it even more differentiated from OpenAI.”

OpenAI: Still Strong, But the Buzz Has Faded

Despite the headlines, Anderson cautions against writing off OpenAI entirely. “I wouldn’t say it’s a one-or-the-other conversation,” he said. But the excitement has undeniably cooled. Secondary market shares are trading as if OpenAI were valued at $765 billion—a noticeable discount to its $852 billion primary-round valuation.

OpenAI has tried to regain control by establishing authorized channels for secondary trades, urging caution against high-fee brokers. Meanwhile, banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are offering OpenAI shares to their wealthiest clients, sometimes without carry fees. But the market’s appetite has shifted.

SpaceX: The Unstoppable Rocket That Never Faltered

Amid the AI frenzy, one company stands apart: SpaceX. While many private companies saw their valuations plummet 60-70% between 2022 and 2024, SpaceX has been “pretty much consistently up and to the right,” Anderson said.

The secret? Disciplined pricing. “A lot of companies will fall for the temptation to maximize the price of their stock in every round,” Anderson noted. “The problem is that that doesn’t leave any room for error.” SpaceX, by contrast, played it conservatively—not getting too greedy—and the payoff has been enormous. Early investors who got in at a $12 billion valuation in 2015 are now sitting on gains of more than 100x, with SpaceX valued at over $1 trillion ahead of its planned IPO.

This week, SpaceX confidentially filed for an initial public offering, setting the stage for what could be one of the largest market debuts in history. Elon Musk is reportedly aiming to raise between $50 billion and $75 billion, possibly in June. Only Saudi Aramco’s 2019 debut, valued at $1.7 trillion, has come close.

The IPO Race: SpaceX Sets the Pace

SpaceX’s IPO filing has already changed the dynamics of the secondary market. “Today, I saw a flood of SpaceX investors coming to me saying, ‘Can you give me SpaceX?'” Anderson noted. “It’s been a very active buy side.” But supply is drying up—the closer a company gets to an IPO, the less incentive existing shareholders have to sell.

This creates a precarious situation for OpenAI and Anthropic, both of which are reportedly exploring public offerings of their own. By filing first, SpaceX is about to test the market’s appetite in a major way. “SpaceX is going to soak up a lot of liquidity,” Anderson said flatly. “There’s only so much money out there allocated to IPOs.” The first mover gets to the trough first; those who follow face both more scrutiny and, potentially, less capital.

The Takeaway: Timing Is Everything

In the high-stakes game of IPOs, timing is everything. Move too early, and you’re the one testing market receptivity. Wait for someone else to go first, and you may find the biggest checks have already been written. For now, Anthropic is the hottest ticket, OpenAI is cooling, and SpaceX is poised to dominate the headlines—and the market.

Tags & Viral Phrases:
AI stock market, Anthropic vs OpenAI, SpaceX IPO, $1.75 trillion valuation, secondary market frenzy, AI bubble, Elon Musk, Glen Anderson Rainmaker Securities, private company shares, tech IPO race, Anthropic hero narrative, OpenAI valuation discount, SpaceX disciplined pricing, liquidity crunch, first mover advantage, $2 billion demand, $600 million unsold shares, Department of Defense standoff, 100x gains, Saudi Aramco comparison, Morgan Stanley Goldman Sachs, high-net-worth clients, carry fees, market debut history, June IPO rumors, techCrunch exclusive, StrictlyVC Download podcast.

,