What Crashed Bitcoin? 3 Theories Behind BTC’s 40% Price Dip in a Month

Bitcoin’s Brutal Plunge: Is the Crypto King Facing Its Darkest Hour Yet?

Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has been on a wild rollercoaster ride over the past month, experiencing one of the most dramatic sell-offs in its history. The digital asset has plummeted more than 40%, crashing to a year-to-date low of $59,930 on Friday. This staggering decline has erased billions of dollars in market value and left investors reeling. To put this into perspective, Bitcoin is now down over 50% from its all-time high near $126,200 reached in October 2025. The crypto community is abuzz with speculation and theories about what’s driving this massive downturn, with some experts warning that Bitcoin could slip back below $60,000, potentially pushing the price closer to miners’ break-even levels.

Key takeaways from this market chaos include:

– Analysts are pointing fingers at Hong Kong hedge funds and ETF-linked U.S. bank products as possible culprits behind BTC’s crash.
– Bitcoin’s price action has been erratic, with massive liquidations and increased volatility across the crypto market.
– The mining sector is showing signs of stress, with some miners potentially facing financial difficulties if the price continues to fall.

One popular theory suggests that Bitcoin’s crash this past week may have originated in Asia, where some Hong Kong hedge funds were placing substantial, leveraged bets that BTC would continue to rise. These funds used options linked to Bitcoin ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT and paid for those bets by borrowing cheap Japanese yen, according to Parker White, COO and CIO of Nasdaq-listed DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV).

They swapped that yen into other currencies and invested in risky assets like crypto, hoping prices would rise. However, when Bitcoin stopped going up, and yen borrowing costs increased, those leveraged bets quickly went bad. Lenders then demanded more cash, forcing the funds to sell Bitcoin and other assets quickly, which exacerbated the price drop.

Another theory gaining traction comes from former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes. He suggested that banks, including Morgan Stanley, may have been forced to sell Bitcoin (or related assets) to hedge their exposure in structured notes tied to spot Bitcoin ETFs, such as BlackRock’s IBIT. These are complex financial products where banks offer clients bets on Bitcoin’s price performance (often with principal protection or barriers).

When Bitcoin falls sharply, breaching key levels like around $78,700 in one noted Morgan Stanley product, dealers must delta-hedge by selling underlying BTC or futures. This creates “negative gamma,” meaning that as prices drop further, hedging sales accelerate, turning banks from liquidity providers into forced sellers and exacerbating the downturn.

Less prominent but circulating is the theory that a so-called “mining exodus” may have also fueled the Bitcoin downtrend. In a Saturday post on X, analyst Judge Gibson said that the growing AI data center demand is already forcing Bitcoin miners to pivot, which has led to a 10-40% drop in hash rate. For instance, in December 2025, Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms announced its shift toward a broader data center strategy, while selling $161 million worth of BTC. Last week, another miner, IREN, announced its pivot to AI data centers.

Meanwhile, the Hash Ribbons indicator also flashed a warning: the 30-day hash-rate average has slipped below the 60-day, a negative inversion that historically signals acute miner income stress and raises the risk of capitulation. As of Saturday, the estimated average electricity cost to mine a single Bitcoin was around $58,160, while the net production expenditure was approximately $72,700.

If Bitcoin drops back below $60,000, miners could start to experience real financial stress. Long-term holders are also looking more cautious. Data shows wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC now control their smallest share of supply in nine months, suggesting this group has been trimming exposure rather than accumulating.

As the crypto market grapples with this significant downturn, all eyes are on Bitcoin to see if it can recover or if this is just the beginning of a more prolonged bear market. Investors and enthusiasts alike are left wondering: Is this the end of Bitcoin’s bull run, or just a temporary setback in its journey to mainstream adoption?

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