Bitcoin Rebounds 7.45% After Testing Key Support, But $74,500 Level Remains Critical Hurdle

Bitcoin has staged a sharp rebound, climbing 7.45% over the past two days after briefly dipping below $62,400 earlier this week. The bounce came as the market tested a key on-chain price support level, but the recovery has done little to alleviate the pressure on a critical cohort of holders. Investors who bought between six months and two years ago remain underwater, with their average cost basis now sitting at $74,500—a level that could determine whether Bitcoin’s current uptrend has legs.

Despite the recent relief rally, Bitcoin’s path forward is fraught with technical and psychological hurdles. The $74,500 level is not just a random price point—it represents the realized price for a significant portion of the market, and reclaiming it could signal a shift in sentiment and supply dynamics.

Why $74,500 Matters More Than Ever

Bitcoin’s realized price is a powerful on-chain metric that tracks the average acquisition cost for a given unspent transaction output (UTXO) age band. For coins aged 18 to 24 months, this level currently sits near $64,200. Crypto analyst Anıl recently noted that Bitcoin tested this threshold and managed to reclaim it by the daily close on Tuesday, keeping the zone intact—for now.

Cost basis levels like these act as psychological pivots. When the price trades below them, investors face unrealized losses, and the risk of distribution increases. A sustained position above the band tends to reduce investor stress and encourages re-accumulation.

Expanding the lens to UTXOs aged six months to two years captures investors from the prior cycle’s consolidation and breakout phases. The realized price for these cohorts is near $74,500—well above the current price. The cohort’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio now sits at 0.88, signaling that the group is, on average, holding at a loss.

As Bitcoin fell below $74,500, investors who bought between six months and two years ago moved into unrealized losses, turning that level into an important profitability threshold. A sustained move back above $74,500 would place much of this group back in aggregate profit, which may ease sell-side pressure from holders looking to exit near their breakeven price.

Long-Term Holders Are Back in Accumulation Mode

On-chain supply data from CryptoQuant shows that the long-term holder balance is back near 14 million BTC (13.96 million) after falling to a multi-year low on November 21, 2025. The recovery in aged supply points to continued coin dormancy despite recent volatility.

If investors who bought between six months and two years ago choose to hold and absorb selling near their average entry price, the supply sitting between $74,500 and $100,000 may thin out more quickly. A sustained rally above $74,500 could push a large portion of these coins back into profit, potentially shifting focus toward liquidity near $100,000.

Realized Cap Growth Slows, Signaling Caution

An uptick in Bitcoin’s realized cap—which measures the aggregate value of coins based on their last on-chain movement price—may also signal a trend shift. The metric is holding near cycle highs, though its rate of expansion has slowed. The realized cap net position change has compressed toward neutral or 0%, signaling that capital inflows are negligible.

While the realized cap remains near all-time highs, it is trending lower, indicating a slowing pace of new capital entering at the higher cost basis levels. Historically, late bear market phases tend to show flat or contracting realized cap, while early recoveries begin with stabilization before acceleration. A renewed expansion in the net position change back toward the 2–4% range may provide clearer confirmation that fresh capital is re-entering and that accumulation is on the rise.

The Path Forward: A Make-or-Break Moment

Bitcoin’s recent bounce has provided a glimmer of hope, but the $74,500 level remains a critical test. A decisive reclaim of that level could signal demand and a shift in short-term market structure. However, failure to hold above it may lead to further consolidation or even a deeper pullback.

With long-term holders re-accumulating and the realized cap showing signs of stabilization, the stage is set for a potential breakout—if Bitcoin can convince its mid-term holders to stay the course. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether this rebound is the start of a new uptrend or just another false dawn.

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