Bitcoin May Drop Below $64K as Veteran Raises ‘Campaign Selling’ Alarm

Bitcoin Faces Fresh Pressure as Miners and ETFs Liquidate Holdings

Bitcoin (BTC) has suffered a brutal 22.5% decline in just seven days, crashing to $69,000 on Thursday and erasing a staggering 15 months of bull market gains. The steep drop has wiped out over $400 billion in market capitalization, leaving traders scrambling for answers. Veteran analyst Peter Brandt warns the bleeding may not be over, pointing to a “campaign selling” pattern that suggests large institutions are deliberately offloading their holdings.

The technical picture paints a grim scenario. Bitcoin has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows, with barely any relief rallies to speak of. This lack of buying pressure during dips indicates that retail investors are largely sitting on the sidelines while institutional players continue their exodus.

On-chain data confirms the distribution narrative. Miners have been consistently selling Bitcoin throughout January, with the miner net position change metric showing net outflows. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have also reduced their exposure dramatically, with holdings falling from 1.29 million BTC at the start of the year to just 1.27 million BTC by Wednesday.

The Coinbase premium, often viewed as a barometer for institutional demand, has plummeted to yearly lows. This suggests that the smart money is not only selling but doing so at an accelerated pace. The combination of miner selling, ETF outflows, and institutional liquidation has created a perfect storm of supply pressure.

Brandt’s analysis suggests Bitcoin could test the lower boundary of a bear flag pattern around $63,800, representing another 10% decline from current levels. However, some analysts believe the situation could deteriorate further.

On-chain analyst GugaOnChain points to the Bitcoin DCA Signal Cycle metric, which indicates that BTC is approaching its one-week to one-month realized price zone near $54,600-$55,000. This level historically marks the transition between capitulation and accumulation phases.

“The current price convergence toward the band signaling the start of the accumulation phase, situated around $54.6K, suggests we are in the critical transition between Capitulation and Accumulation,” GugaOnChain noted.

Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin’s next accumulation phase might not begin until after July 2026, based on the lag effects between widening credit spreads and market bottoms. This extended timeline could mean more pain for Bitcoin holders in the near term.

The broader crypto market has followed Bitcoin’s lead, with most major altcoins posting double-digit losses. Ethereum has fallen below $3,000, while smaller cap tokens have experienced even steeper declines.

Market sentiment has shifted dramatically from the euphoria of late 2025 to a climate of fear and uncertainty. Social media platforms are flooded with discussions about whether this represents a healthy correction or the beginning of a prolonged bear market.

Institutional investors appear to be rotating out of crypto assets into traditional safe havens, exacerbating the selling pressure. The macroeconomic environment, with persistent inflation concerns and potential interest rate hikes, has made risk assets like Bitcoin less attractive to large funds.

Technical analysts are watching key support levels closely. A break below $65,000 could trigger stop-loss orders and accelerate the decline toward the $54,600-$55,000 zone. Conversely, a strong bounce from current levels would suggest that the selling pressure is exhausting itself.

The options market reflects this bearish outlook, with put options significantly outnumbering calls. Implied volatility has spiked as traders price in the possibility of further downside moves.

Bitcoin’s hash rate has remained relatively stable despite the price decline, suggesting that miners are holding on rather than capitulating entirely. However, less efficient mining operations may be forced to shut down if prices continue falling.

The Lightning Network capacity has also contracted slightly, indicating reduced transaction volume and potentially lower user activity on the Bitcoin network.

Regulatory uncertainty continues to loom over the cryptocurrency market. Recent enforcement actions and proposed legislation have created additional headwinds for institutional adoption.

Despite the current weakness, some long-term holders view this as a buying opportunity. MicroStrategy and other corporate Bitcoin holders have maintained their positions, suggesting confidence in the asset’s long-term value proposition.

The halving event scheduled for April 2024 remains a potential catalyst for future price appreciation, though its effects may be overshadowed by current market dynamics.

Bitcoin miners and ETFs cut exposure amid campaign selling
$54,600-$55,000 zone emerges as potential bottom
15 months of gains wiped out in just 7 days
Institutional distribution accelerates as Coinbase premium hits yearly lows
Bear flag pattern targets $63,800 if breakdown continues
DCA Signal Cycle suggests accumulation phase near
Next accumulation window may not arrive until July 2026
Macro headwinds intensify selling pressure
Options market pricing in further downside
Hash rate stable but miner capitulation risks rising
Lightning Network capacity contracts amid reduced activity
Regulatory uncertainty adds to market pressure
Corporate holders maintain positions despite volatility
April 2024 halving remains long-term catalyst
Fear and uncertainty dominate social media sentiment
Technical breakdown threatens key support levels
Altcoins follow Bitcoin lower with double-digit losses
Volatility spikes as traders brace for more pain
Smart money rotates to traditional safe havens,