Bitcoin Price Rally To $79K Would Make Spot ETF Holders Whole Again

Bitcoin Nears $80,000 Breakout as ETF Investors Edge Toward Breakeven
Bitcoin (BTC) is on the cusp of a major psychological milestone, with the cryptocurrency trading just below $80,000—a level that could signal the next leg up for the market. More importantly, this price point is now within striking distance of the average entry price for US spot Bitcoin ETF investors, currently hovering around $79,900. As Bitcoin’s market price converges with this breakeven level, on-chain data is flashing early signs of accelerated buying, suggesting a potential shift in market sentiment.

Bitcoin ETF Breakeven Level Nears Key Trend Test
Bitcoin’s sustained rally above $70,000 has put a critical cohort of investors back in focus: those who bought into spot Bitcoin ETFs. The ETF cost basis level, which acted as a support zone in mid-2024, is now being tested once again. A decisive move above this level would bring many ETF holders closer to breaking even, potentially unlocking fresh buying pressure.

According to Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr., ETF flows have flipped positive after persistent outflows through mid-February. The seven-day average has since moved to steady inflows, with daily flows peaking above 3,300 BTC on March 2. ETF holdings have expanded to 1,291,618 BTC from 1,264,982 BTC, a 26,636 BTC increase over the past month.

Investors’ ETF cost basis also aligns with a key daily trend. A break above this range would mark the first time since October 2025 that Bitcoin’s price reclaims the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) on the daily chart. A move above the 100-day EMA signals a shift into a long-term uptrend, reinforcing bullish momentum and serving as a key trend filter where sustained price action often leads to continued upside gains.

Bitcoin Buyers Begin to Outpace Sellers
The order flow across major exchanges shows a gradual shift in market behavior. Crypto analyst Darkfost noted that the 30-day volume delta on Binance and Coinbase has turned positive after sustained selling pressure in February. Both retail and institutional flows are now collectively skewing toward accumulation.

Bitcoin’s futures data reinforces this trend. Amr Taha observed that Binance’s cumulative volume delta (CVD) has rebounded by nearly $6 billion from its lows, tracking a rise in aggressive market buying since BTC traded near $63,000. While the metric remains below zero, a significant portion of earlier sell pressure has now been absorbed during the recovery.

CryptoQuant data shows that short-term holder activity also aligns with this shift. The spent-output profit ratio (SOPR) metric, which shows whether coins are sold at a profit or loss, has moved back above 1, signaling that selling pressure has eased and coins are now trading around or above their cost. Analyst miracleyoon said, “While this capitulation was not as severe as the August 5, 2024, event (which saw SOPR approach ~0.9), the series of recent capitulation signals appears sufficient to have flushed out weak hands.”

The data suggests that Bitcoin remains on track to test the $80,000 level, but a move above the key breakeven zone may determine the strength and direction of the trend in the coming weeks.

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