Bitcoin’s ‘hopium’ for bulls is over and this weekend’s slide may be just the beginning

Bitcoin Crashes Below $78K: Is This the Beginning of a Deeper Crypto Winter?

Bitcoin’s price took a brutal nosedive over the weekend, plunging below the critical $78,000 support level—a territory not seen since April. The sudden drop has sent shockwaves through the crypto community, as traders scramble to understand whether this is just a temporary correction or the start of something far more concerning.

The cryptocurrency had been riding high on a wave of institutional adoption, particularly fueled by MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy. However, that momentum appears to have evaporated, leaving the market exposed to a cascade of selling pressure and derivative liquidations that have accelerated the downward spiral.

According to market insiders speaking with CoinDesk, the once-steady stream of corporate buyers has dried up, creating a perfect storm of thinning liquidity and profit-taking that has pushed Bitcoin to its lowest levels in months.

Veteran analyst Eric Crown, a former options trader at NYSE Arca, has been sounding the alarm since late October, warning that Bitcoin is trapped in a “sideways-to-downside phase.” In his view, the current optimism about Bitcoin returning to new all-time highs—or the hope that capital will rotate back from metals into crypto—is nothing more than “hopium” for bulls unwilling to face reality.

“It’s been my view since the end of October that BTC is in a sideways and downside phase,” Crown told CoinDesk. “I do not think 80K is a macro low for bitcoin.” With over 200,000 subscribers following his market updates, Crown’s analysis carries significant weight in the crypto community.

The options market is now reflecting this bearish sentiment in dramatic fashion. Traders are increasingly positioning for Bitcoin to break below $75,000, while abandoning their once-popular bets on the cryptocurrency reaching $100,000. The numbers tell a stark story: the dollar value of active Bitcoin put options contracts at the $75,000 level on the Deribit platform now stands at $1.159 billion—virtually identical to the $1.168 billion locked in the $100,000 call options.

This shift represents a complete reversal of market sentiment, with traders now willing to bet nearly equal amounts on both the upside and downside scenarios—a clear sign of uncertainty and fear.

Technical indicators are painting an equally concerning picture. The monthly MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) crossed downward in November, a rare signal that has historically preceded extended downturns in previous Bitcoin cycles. The weekly 21 vs. 55 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) recently entered bearish territory, typically followed by multi-month losses. Adding insult to injury, the 2025 yearly chart closed as a “shooting star” candlestick pattern—a formation that often signals medium-term reversals.

Crown points to several factors that could push Bitcoin even lower. Most notably, Bitcoin has diverged from traditional markets since October, declining while equities and other risk assets have held up. This pattern, he argues, is typical of late-cycle risk-off behavior, where investors sell the most speculative assets first.

The October crash that wiped out many leveraged altcoin positions has also left traders cautious about re-entering at current levels. This “wash-out” effect has created a psychological barrier that may take months to overcome.

While Crown isn’t predicting an apocalyptic crash to zero, he suggests Bitcoin could fall into the mid-$50,000 to low-$60,000 range before finding a bottom. Interestingly, he views this potential decline as a buying opportunity, describing the current market as a “value-accumulation phase” rather than the end of crypto’s broader cycle.

For long-term investors, this perspective offers a silver lining: what looks like catastrophe to short-term traders might actually be presenting generational buying opportunities for those with patience and conviction.

The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can find support at these levels or if the bears are just getting started. With technical indicators flashing warning signs and options traders betting billions on further declines, the path of least resistance appears to be downward—at least for now.

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