Bitcoin’s Next Move: Patience Required as BTC Consolidates Between $75K-$100K, Says Bitwise’s Hougan

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues its rollercoaster ride through the crypto markets, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has delivered a sobering yet optimistic outlook for the world’s premier cryptocurrency. In a recent analysis that’s sending ripples through the trading community, Hougan predicts Bitcoin will likely trade sideways between $75,000 and $100,000 during the first half of 2025, calling for patience before the next significant leg higher.

The veteran crypto executive’s assessment comes at a crucial juncture for Bitcoin, which has been struggling to maintain momentum above the psychologically important $100,000 mark. According to Hougan, this consolidation phase isn’t a sign of weakness but rather a necessary pause in Bitcoin’s evolutionary journey.

“There’s still a lot of Bitcoin for sale around $100,000,” Hougan explained, pointing to options market positioning that suggests significant selling pressure at these levels. This observation aligns with what many traders have been experiencing firsthand—every attempt to break above $100,000 has been met with substantial resistance, creating a frustrating ceiling for bullish investors.

However, Hougan’s analysis suggests this isn’t the end of the road but rather a strategic pause. He anticipates that a breakout is more likely to occur later in 2025 as regulatory clarity improves and the market digests ongoing macroeconomic risks. This timeline suggests that patient investors who can weather the current consolidation may be rewarded with the next major upward movement.

Gold’s Rally Reinforces Bitcoin’s Long-Term Value Proposition

In a fascinating twist, Hougan draws parallels between Bitcoin’s trajectory and the recent surge in precious metals, particularly gold. The traditional safe-haven asset has been experiencing its own remarkable rally, and Hougan sees this as reinforcing Bitcoin’s long-term case rather than competing with it.

“The surge in gold reflects global concerns about fiat currencies and asset seizure risk,” Hougan noted, highlighting the growing distrust in traditional monetary systems. This sentiment perfectly aligns with Bitcoin’s original value proposition as “digital gold”—a decentralized, censorship-resistant store of value that exists outside the control of any government or central authority.

Silver, meanwhile, appears to be following a different path. Hougan characterizes silver’s recent performance as resembling a late-stage momentum trade, drawing comparisons to speculative altcoin rallies that often precede market corrections. This observation suggests that while gold’s fundamentals remain strong, silver may be experiencing the kind of speculative excess that typically precedes a pullback.

The most intriguing aspect of Hougan’s analysis is his expectation that these dynamics will ultimately funnel demand toward Bitcoin as a superior form of self-custody and settlement. Unlike gold, which requires physical storage and can be confiscated, or silver, which lacks the same monetary premium, Bitcoin offers a unique combination of portability, divisibility, and security that makes it increasingly attractive to both retail and institutional investors.

Central Banks Circling Bitcoin: Adoption Still Years Away

Perhaps the most significant revelation from Hougan’s analysis is the growing interest from central banks in Bitcoin as a potential reserve asset. While this might seem counterintuitive given Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and potential to challenge traditional monetary policy, Hougan reports that Bitwise has already held meetings with central banks across multiple regions.

These institutions, however, are still in the early stages of their Bitcoin journey. Rather than discussing implementation details or portfolio allocation strategies, central banks are primarily focused on fundamental questions about Bitcoin’s security and risks. This suggests that while interest is growing, we’re still years away from seeing central banks actively adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets.

Hougan’s long-term vision for central bank adoption is particularly bold. He expects that central banks will eventually own more Bitcoin than gold, potentially flipping the traditional hierarchy of monetary reserves. However, this transformation is likely to take 10 to 20 years, reflecting the conservative nature of these institutions and the significant paradigm shift required to embrace a decentralized digital asset.

This timeline aligns with broader trends in monetary policy and technological adoption. As younger generations ascend to positions of power within central banks and governments, and as the limitations of traditional monetary systems become increasingly apparent, the case for Bitcoin as a reserve asset will only strengthen.

The $6.5 Million Bitcoin Call: A Long-Term Bet on Monetary Reality

Perhaps the most headline-grabbing aspect of Hougan’s analysis is his reiterated view that Bitcoin could reach approximately $6.5 million per coin over the next 20 years. This isn’t a wild speculation but rather a calculated projection based on current monetary trends and Bitcoin’s unique properties as a store of value.

The core assumption driving this forecast isn’t accelerating adoption rates or technological breakthroughs, but rather the continuation of global debt growth, money printing, and currency debasement that has characterized the past 15 years. Hougan argues that as long as the future isn’t dramatically different from the recent past, this price target becomes not just possible but probable.

“It’s just a matter of time,” Hougan stated, emphasizing that Bitcoin’s journey to these astronomical valuations is more about the erosion of traditional currencies than about Bitcoin itself becoming more valuable in absolute terms. This perspective reframes Bitcoin not as an investment that appreciates, but as a monetary asset that maintains purchasing power while fiat currencies depreciate.

Hougan’s comparison of Bitcoin to gold is particularly instructive. He argues that Bitcoin represents a superior version of gold—more portable, more divisible, more secure, and more verifiable. As central banks and institutional investors begin to understand this distinction, the shift from gold to Bitcoin as the preferred store of value could accelerate dramatically.

Volatility Compression: The Key to Institutional Adoption

For institutional investors, Bitcoin’s historical volatility has been a significant barrier to entry. However, Hougan points to a encouraging trend: declining Bitcoin volatility, which he identifies as critical for broader institutional adoption.

In a particularly compelling comparison, Hougan often tells allocators that Bitcoin is now less volatile than Nvidia, a stock that many institutional investors already hold. This comparison helps contextualize Bitcoin’s risk profile and demonstrates how far the cryptocurrency has come in terms of price stability.

Bitwise expects this volatility to continue falling while Bitcoin remains the fastest-growing major financial asset. This combination—reduced volatility with continued growth—creates an increasingly attractive risk-reward profile for institutional investors who have been on the sidelines waiting for more stability.

The implications of this volatility compression are profound. As Bitcoin becomes more stable, it becomes easier to incorporate into traditional portfolio construction models, risk management frameworks, and investment mandates. This could unlock trillions of dollars in institutional capital that have been hesitant to enter the crypto markets due to volatility concerns.

Final Take: Short-Term Chop, Long-Term Conviction

Hougan’s overall message is one of cautious optimism. While acknowledging the near-term challenges and consolidation, he maintains strong conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Regulatory clarity in Washington could accelerate the next bull phase, but he emphasizes that it isn’t required for crypto’s long-term trajectory.

Even without significant regulatory progress, Hougan expects ETFs, stablecoins, and tokenization to keep expanding, creating a broader ecosystem that supports Bitcoin’s value proposition. These infrastructure developments are laying the groundwork for the next phase of adoption, regardless of short-term price action.

“The fundamentals are really good,” Hougan concluded. “The stars are aligned for a good 2026.” This statement encapsulates his balanced view—acknowledging current challenges while maintaining confidence in the underlying drivers of value.

For investors navigating the current market environment, Hougan’s analysis suggests that patience and perspective are essential. The consolidation phase between $75,000 and $100,000 may test the resolve of bullish investors, but it also represents a necessary step in Bitcoin’s maturation process. Those who can maintain their conviction through this period may find themselves well-positioned for the next major leg higher.

As the crypto markets continue to evolve, Hougan’s insights provide a valuable framework for understanding both the near-term challenges and the long-term opportunities that Bitcoin presents. Whether Bitcoin reaches $6.5 million per coin or takes a different path entirely, the underlying trends of monetary debasement, technological innovation, and shifting investor preferences suggest that Bitcoin’s journey is far from over.

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