Electric Vehicles Could Overtake Gas Cars in Africa by 2040, Study Finds

A groundbreaking new analysis published in Nature Energy suggests that electric vehicles (EVs) could become more affordable than their gasoline counterparts across most of Africa within the next 15 years—provided that solar-powered off-grid charging infrastructure is in place.

Currently, electric vehicles account for just 1% of new car sales across the African continent, a figure that underscores the massive untapped potential for electrification. However, researchers at ETH Zurich have modeled a future where EVs, when paired with solar panels, batteries, and inverters, could undercut the total cost of ownership of traditional combustion-engine vehicles by 2040.

The study’s findings hinge on a comprehensive total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis, which includes not only the sticker price of the vehicle but also financing costs and the ongoing expenses of fuel or charging. Notably, the researchers deliberately excluded policy-related variables such as taxes, subsidies, and import duties to isolate the intrinsic economic competitiveness of EVs.

One of the most striking revelations is that electric two-wheelers—scooters and motorcycles—could reach cost parity with gas-powered models by the end of this decade. Their smaller battery packs and lower energy requirements make them especially well-suited for early adoption, particularly in urban areas where short commutes are the norm.

Passenger cars, however, present a more complex picture. Small cars, in particular, face the steepest uphill battle. The primary barrier is not the price of the vehicles themselves, but rather the cost of financing. In many African countries, political instability and economic volatility drive interest rates to extreme levels. In some cases, the interest paid over the life of an EV loan can exceed the vehicle’s initial purchase price—a daunting prospect for any consumer.

The study identifies a handful of countries that are already approaching the financing conditions necessary for EVs to compete on cost. South Africa, Mauritius, and Botswana are leading the way, with interest rates and economic stability that could support widespread EV adoption in the near term. Conversely, nations such as Sudan and Ghana would require dramatic improvements in their financial environments—potentially through policy reforms, international investment, or innovative financing mechanisms—to make EVs a viable alternative for the average driver.

The researchers also emphasize the critical role of solar-powered off-grid charging. In many parts of Africa, the electrical grid is unreliable or nonexistent, making home charging a challenge. Solar panels, coupled with battery storage, offer a decentralized solution that not only reduces dependence on the grid but also insulates drivers from volatile fuel prices. This approach could prove especially transformative in rural and underserved areas, where the lack of infrastructure has long been a barrier to modernization.

While the study paints an optimistic picture for the future, it also serves as a call to action. Policymakers, investors, and industry leaders will need to collaborate to address the financing gap, expand renewable energy infrastructure, and create an enabling environment for EV adoption. The potential benefits are enormous—not only in terms of cost savings for consumers, but also for public health, environmental sustainability, and energy security.

As Africa stands on the cusp of a mobility revolution, the convergence of declining battery costs, rising fuel prices, and the expansion of solar power could set the stage for one of the most significant shifts in transportation the continent has ever seen. The road ahead is long, but the destination is clear: a future where clean, affordable, and sustainable mobility is within reach for millions.

Tags: Africa, electric vehicles, EV adoption, solar power, off-grid charging, total cost of ownership, ETH Zurich, Nature Energy, sustainable mobility, renewable energy, financing barriers, two-wheelers, cost parity, energy transition

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