Standard Chartered Reaffirms $2T Stablecoin Call, Trims T-Bill View

Standard Chartered Reaffirms T Stablecoin Call, Trims T-Bill View

Stablecoin Surge Poised to Reshape Global Finance as $2 Trillion Market Looms by 2028

In a bold reaffirmation of its long-term vision, Standard Chartered has maintained its forecast that the stablecoin market will balloon to a staggering $2 trillion by the close of 2028—an audacious projection that could fundamentally alter the landscape of global finance. Despite a recent plateau in the market cap of stablecoins, which has hovered around $300 billion amid a broader crypto market downturn, the bank’s analysts remain resolutely bullish, citing the transformative potential of the US GENIUS Act passed in 2025.

Stablecoins, digital assets pegged to traditional currencies like the US dollar, have emerged as a cornerstone of the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Industry leaders such as Tether’s USDt (USDT) and Circle’s USDC (USDC) are not only facilitating seamless transactions within the crypto space but are also increasingly being viewed as a bridge between digital and traditional finance. According to Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick and US rates strategist John Davies, these digital dollars are expected to drive demand for US Treasury bills to an eye-popping $2.2 trillion by 2028.

The analysts’ optimism is rooted in the belief that the current stagnation in stablecoin growth is merely a cyclical blip rather than a structural impediment. “We see these issues as cyclical rather than structural, and we continue to expect stablecoin market cap to reach $2 trillion by end-2028,” the report stated, underscoring their confidence in the sector’s resilience and growth trajectory.

A Tectonic Shift in Treasury Demand

One of the most intriguing implications of this projected growth is its potential impact on the US Treasury market. Standard Chartered anticipates that stablecoins will generate an additional $800 billion to $1 trillion in fresh demand for Treasury bills by late 2028. This figure represents a significant reduction from the $1.6 trillion projected in April 2025, yet it still underscores the profound influence stablecoins could wield over government financing.

The analysts suggest that the US Treasury may leverage this burgeoning demand as a rationale for issuing more T-bills. This perspective gains credence from statements by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in early February, who highlighted the GENIUS Act as a potential “important feature of financing the US government.” The Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement on the same day further emphasized “growing demand for Treasury bills from the private sector,” a nod to the rising prominence of stablecoins in the financial ecosystem.

The convergence of stablecoin demand with the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to commence Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs) and replace maturing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) with T-bills could create a scenario where T-bills become “overly scarce.” This scarcity could drive up demand and potentially influence interest rates, adding another layer of complexity to the already intricate dynamics of global finance.

Bitcoin’s Rollercoaster Ride

While stablecoins are poised for explosive growth, the outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) remains more volatile. Standard Chartered, which previously projected Bitcoin to hit $500,000 by the end of 2028, has recently tempered its expectations. Amid ongoing uncertainty in crypto markets, the bank has lowered its Bitcoin price target for 2026 from $150,000 to $100,000, with a cautionary note that the cryptocurrency could dip as low as $50,000 before staging a potential recovery.

This recalibration reflects the broader challenges facing the crypto market, including regulatory scrutiny, market volatility, and shifting investor sentiment. Yet, even as Bitcoin navigates these headwinds, the stablecoin sector appears to be charting a more stable and promising course.

The GENIUS Act: A Game-Changer?

The passage of the US GENIUS Act in 2025 has been a pivotal moment for the stablecoin industry. Designed to provide a regulatory framework for stablecoins, the Act aims to foster innovation while ensuring consumer protection and financial stability. By legitimizing stablecoins and clarifying their role in the financial system, the GENIUS Act has paved the way for increased adoption and integration into mainstream finance.

This regulatory clarity has been a boon for industry leaders like Tether and Circle, which have seen their stablecoins become indispensable tools for traders, investors, and even governments. As stablecoins continue to gain traction, their influence on global finance is likely to grow, potentially reshaping everything from cross-border payments to government financing.

A New Era of Financial Innovation

The rise of stablecoins represents a broader trend toward the digitization of finance. By combining the stability of traditional currencies with the efficiency and transparency of blockchain technology, stablecoins offer a compelling alternative to conventional financial instruments. Their potential to streamline transactions, reduce costs, and enhance financial inclusion has captured the imagination of policymakers, investors, and technologists alike.

As the stablecoin market hurtles toward the $2 trillion milestone, its implications extend far beyond the crypto ecosystem. From influencing Treasury bill demand to reshaping global payments, stablecoins are poised to play a central role in the future of finance. Whether they will live up to the lofty expectations set by Standard Chartered remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the stablecoin revolution is well underway, and its impact will be felt for years to come.


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