Global Smartphone Shipments Surge to 3-Year High in 2025, But 2026 Looks Rocky

In a surprising turn of events, the global smartphone market has bounced back with vigor in 2025, recording its highest annual shipment volume since 2021. According to fresh data from Omdia, a leading technology market research firm, worldwide smartphone shipments climbed 2% to reach an impressive 1.25 billion units—a clear sign that consumer demand remains resilient despite ongoing economic uncertainties.

A Year of Growth Across the Globe

The rebound was widespread, with all major regions contributing to the growth—except for Greater China. There, shipments dipped slightly as the effects of a national subsidy scheme, introduced earlier to stimulate demand, began to fade. Elsewhere, however, the story was one of recovery and expansion. Consumers, eager to upgrade their devices or replace aging ones, helped buoy sales throughout the year. Several major vendors even posted record shipment numbers, underscoring the market’s underlying strength.

The fourth quarter of 2025 was particularly robust, with shipments rising 4% year-over-year. Seasonal shopping, coupled with strong vendor performance, helped close the year on a high note. But not all was rosy: rising component and memory costs are already casting a shadow over early 2026, prompting some analysts to warn of tougher times ahead.

“2025 has been a positive year for most vendors, but headwinds are building for the 2026 outlook,” said Runar Bjorhovde, senior analyst at Omdia. His cautionary note reflects growing concerns about supply chain pressures and the potential for market contraction.

Apple and Samsung Lead the Charge

Apple continued its dominance in 2025, shipping a record 240.6 million iPhones—a 7% increase from the previous year. This performance secured its position as the world’s largest smartphone vendor for the third consecutive year. The fourth quarter was especially strong, with Apple achieving an all-time high in shipments. Mainland China proved a bright spot, with iPhone sales soaring 26% year-over-year, thanks in large part to robust demand for the iPhone 17 series.

Samsung, meanwhile, staged a comeback after three years of decline. Its shipments grew by 7% in 2025, finishing the year just behind Apple. The fourth quarter was pivotal, with shipments jumping 16% year-over-year. Omdia credits this resurgence to strong demand for flagship models and a recovery in mass-market segments, including entry-level and mainstream devices.

The Battle for Third Place Heats Up

The race for third place was fiercely contested. Xiaomi managed to hold onto its spot despite a 2% decline in shipments, as entry-level demand softened and several key markets contracted sharply in the final quarter. Vivo, however, made a breakthrough, moving into fourth place for the first time with shipments growing 4% to 105.3 million units. Its continued strength in India and stable performance at home were key drivers.

OPPO rounded out the top five, shipping 100.7 million units—a 3% drop from the previous year. Beyond the top five, several vendors reported continued growth despite challenging conditions. Honor and Lenovo both saw double-digit shipment increases, while Huawei made a remarkable comeback, reclaiming the top spot in Mainland China for the first time in five years.

The biggest story, though, may be Nothing, the upstart brand that recorded an astonishing 86% increase in shipments, topping 3 million units for the year. This meteoric rise signals that innovation and bold marketing can still shake up the status quo.

2026: A Year of Challenges and Opportunities

Looking ahead, the outlook for 2026 is more uncertain. Omdia’s latest report, “DRAM Eats Smartphones: What Matters for Success in 2026,” warns that escalating supply-side pressures in DRAM, NAND, and other semiconductors are expected to squeeze margins, force pricing adjustments, and weaken consumer demand.

Vendors with smaller scale, limited supplier relationships, heavy exposure to older memory technologies (LPDDR4 and LPDDR4X), and large low-end portfolios face the greatest risk. In response, many companies are expected to shift focus toward profitability and explore new revenue streams.

“With market contraction looking increasingly unavoidable for 2026, vendors will shift toward prioritizing profitability while expanding alternative revenue streams,” said Le Xuan Chiew, research manager at Omdia. “Periods of disruption offer a competitive edge to those who navigate challenges with agility. These conditions create a strategic opening to capture upgrade switchers, scale across new channels, and secure the market share vital for long-term resilience. The defining question for 2026 and beyond is which vendors will most effectively acquire customers and optimize partnerships while navigating persistent supply-side pressures.”

The Road Ahead

The smartphone market’s rebound in 2025 is a testament to the enduring appeal of these devices and the ingenuity of the companies that make them. Yet, as 2026 approaches, the industry faces a complex landscape marked by rising costs, shifting consumer expectations, and fierce competition.

Will Apple and Samsung continue to dominate? Can challengers like Nothing and Honor sustain their momentum? And how will vendors adapt to the looming supply chain crisis? One thing is certain: the next chapter in the smartphone saga promises to be as dramatic and unpredictable as ever.

What do you think about where the smartphone market is heading next? Let us know in the comments.

Image credit: Im_Yanis/depositphotos.com

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