Warming El Nino may return later this year: UN

El Niño Could Make a Dramatic Return as La Niña Fades, UN Warns

In a striking climate update, the United Nations has issued a warning that the El Niño weather phenomenon—known for driving global temperatures to record highs—could make a powerful comeback later this year. This forecast comes as its counterpart, La Niña, which has been cooling the planet for nearly three years, finally shows signs of weakening.

El Niño and La Niña are two halves of a complex climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). While La Niña tends to bring cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, El Niño is characterized by unusually warm waters in the same region. The effects of these patterns ripple across the globe, influencing everything from hurricane seasons to rainfall distribution, agriculture, and even economic stability.

According to the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is now a significant chance that El Niño will re-emerge by the middle of 2024. The agency’s latest assessment suggests that the current La Niña, which has helped moderate global temperatures since 2020, is nearing its end. As ocean temperatures in the Pacific begin to rise, meteorologists are closely watching for the telltale signs of El Niño’s return.

The implications of another El Niño event are profound. Historically, El Niño years have been associated with extreme weather events: devastating floods in some regions, prolonged droughts in others, and a marked increase in global average temperatures. The last major El Niño, which peaked in 2015-2016, contributed to that period becoming the hottest on record at the time. With climate change already pushing the planet toward new temperature thresholds, the return of El Niño could accelerate the pace of warming even further.

Scientists caution that the interplay between El Niño and ongoing climate change could push global temperatures beyond the critical 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels—a limit set by the Paris Agreement to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. The WMO notes that even a temporary breach of this limit would be a stark reminder of the urgency to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Beyond temperature spikes, El Niño’s return could disrupt global weather patterns in ways that affect millions. In South America, El Niño often brings heavy rains and flooding to the coasts of Peru and Ecuador, while causing drought in the Amazon and parts of Brazil. In North America, it can lead to wetter conditions in the southern United States and milder winters in the north. Australia and Southeast Asia may face reduced rainfall, threatening agriculture and water supplies. The Horn of Africa, already grappling with climate-driven crises, could see further disruption to its fragile food systems.

The economic ramifications are equally significant. Agriculture, fisheries, and energy sectors are all sensitive to ENSO-driven weather anomalies. For example, El Niño can suppress the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water off the coasts of South America, devastating fish populations and impacting global seafood markets. Droughts can cripple crop yields, driving up food prices and exacerbating food insecurity in vulnerable regions.

For now, the WMO emphasizes that while the odds of El Niño returning are increasing, the exact timing and strength of the event remain uncertain. Climate models suggest a range of possibilities, from a mild El Niño to a more intense episode. Regardless of its intensity, the return of El Niño is likely to add another layer of volatility to an already unpredictable global climate.

As the world braces for what could be another year of extreme weather, the UN is calling for heightened preparedness and international cooperation. Early warning systems, resilient infrastructure, and adaptive agricultural practices are more critical than ever. The message is clear: the climate system is sending strong signals, and humanity must be ready to respond.

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