Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo, Transsion cut 2026 smartphone shipment forecasts · TechNode

China’s smartphone giants slash shipment forecasts as memory prices squeeze supply chain

In a dramatic shift for the global smartphone industry, four of China’s biggest manufacturers—Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo, and Transsion—have significantly downgraded their full-year shipment targets amid mounting pressure from surging memory chip costs. The revisions, first reported by Jiemian News, underscore the fragility of global supply chains and the cascading effects of semiconductor price volatility.

Xiaomi and Oppo have each reduced their projections by more than 20%, while Vivo has cut its forecast by nearly 15%. Transsion, the Shenzhen-based brand dominating African markets, has lowered its target to below 70 million units for the year. The cuts primarily affect mid- to low-end models and overseas markets, where price sensitivity is higher and margins thinner.

The root cause, according to industry sources, is the sharp rise in memory chip prices—a critical component in smartphones. Prices for DRAM and NAND flash have surged in recent months due to supply constraints and robust demand from data centers, AI applications, and consumer electronics. For smartphone makers operating on razor-thin margins, these cost increases are proving unsustainable without passing them on to consumers—a move that could erode market share in price-competitive segments.

A source familiar with the matter revealed that manufacturers often inflate order volumes to secure priority access to scarce components from suppliers. However, this practice has backfired as memory chipmakers like Samsung and SK Hynix have not been informed of any actual reductions in shipments. This disconnect suggests a potential oversupply of components, further complicating the situation for OEMs.

The revisions come at a time when the global smartphone market is already grappling with slowing demand, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical tensions. China, once the engine of global smartphone growth, has seen its market mature, forcing manufacturers to look abroad for expansion. However, the rising cost of components threatens to undermine their competitiveness in emerging markets, where affordability is key.

Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo have built their global strategies on aggressive pricing and rapid expansion into regions like India, Southeast Asia, and Africa. Transsion, with its Tecno, Infinix, anditel brands, has dominated Africa, but even its stronghold is not immune to the pressures of rising costs. The revised forecasts suggest that these companies may need to recalibrate their strategies, potentially focusing on higher-margin devices or diversifying their supply chains to mitigate risks.

The memory price surge is not an isolated issue. It reflects broader challenges in the semiconductor industry, where demand consistently outpaces supply. While chipmakers have announced plans to expand production capacity, these projects take years to materialize, leaving smartphone manufacturers in a bind.

For consumers, the implications are clear: fewer choices, higher prices, and potentially delayed product launches. For the industry, the revisions serve as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of global supply chains and the vulnerability of even the largest players to external shocks.

As the year progresses, all eyes will be on how these companies navigate the turbulent waters of the smartphone market. Will they absorb the costs, raise prices, or pivot to new strategies? One thing is certain: the era of unchecked growth in the smartphone industry may be coming to an end, replaced by a more cautious and strategic approach.

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