‘Sunset’ for broadcast TV on cards, but timing unclear

The TV antenna on your roof is on its way to becoming obsolete as traditional free-to-air broadcasts face being “sunset” over the next decade, with media giants plotting for an internet-only and streaming-dominated future.

Planning for the eventual wind down of over-the-air broadcasts has begun, but it remains unclear how quickly transmissions could be scaled back or phased out entirely.

The country’s largest broadcaster, TVNZ, says it expects to be “well on its way to being fully digital” upon the completion of a six-year transformation strategy in 2030, saying it’s “planning for a future” where programmes are “delivered exclusively through streaming”.

This would mean that turning on your TV and selecting channels the old-fashioned way would come to an end.

But you’d still be able to watch the same channels, just through an internet-connected TV or via website or app on a laptop, phone or tablet – as many people already do.

Warner Brothers Discovery, owners of Three, and Sky were also asked for their plans.

Sky said its satellite-delivered TV was in its plans for some time to come, while Warner Brothers said they had “no fixed timelines” for a move to streaming-only.

‘Out of our control’

A TVNZ spokesperson said the timing of the shift will be “dependent on a range of factors, and some of these are out of our control, such as device uptake and broadband coverage.”

Meanwhile, officials advised Media Minister Paul Goldsmith in May that Freeview was developing an industry plan for a “sector transition” away from digital terrestrial broadcasting.

“Freeview is currently developing an industry plan for a sector transition, which would likely involve a planned process aimed at reducing regional connectivity risks,” it said.

TVNZ, which publishes 1News.co.nz, said digital terrestrial broadcasts of its channels would continue “until at least the end of 2029 and via satellite until at least 2032”.

Freeview over UHF aerials, known as digital terrestrial, offers HD pictures and is available to about 86% of homes, while Freeview over satellite covers the whole of the country.

‘Viewers leading the charge’

“It’s viewers that are leading the charge here. Audience behaviour is changing, with more people using digital technology to watch content, and a slow but steady decline in people using linear technology like aerials and satellite dishes,” a spokesperson said.

“The growth in broadband availability across Aotearoa has enabled the shift, and it’s this accessibility, combined with the flexibility and range of content options in digital services, that’s driving the migration.

“TVNZ is moving with New Zealanders. By 2030, it will be a digital-first media organisation, and well on its way to being fully digital.

“That will mean more choices and more personalised viewing experiences for viewers, as well as the option to watch curated channels as they do today.”

The state-owned but commercially funded company wants to shift its income from traditional TV commercials to digital advertising – via its streaming platform, TVNZ+, which it hopes will become a formidable local competitor to global giants like Netflix.

“TVNZ is planning for a future where our content and services are delivered exclusively through streaming, and that means we will sunset our linear broadcast TV distribution over time,” a spokesperson said.

A December briefing to the media minister suggested Warner Brothers Discovery – the operators of TV3 – had considered making a move as early as the middle of next year.

However, the company itself has not confirmed any timelines for a possible change.

In a statement to 1News, a spokesperson said: “We have no fixed timelines, but we are closely monitoring audience behaviour alongside our business objectives, and we will engage with the broader industry on appropriate timelines.”

Concerns over digital exclusion

The industry’s shift to streaming – part of a broader global trend – has raised concerns about whether some audiences could end up being excluded. In the UK, fears over the shift have led the government to commit to maintaining Freeview services until 2034.

Victoria University media studies professor Peter Thompson said rural viewers with patchier internet access, lower-income households and older generations would have a trickier time adapting.

He added that free-to-air broadcasts allowed people to access media with fewer recurring costs – while streaming required paying regularly for high-speed internet.

“You can’t just flick the switch next Tuesday, because you’ll leave potentially hundreds of thousands of people without really essential services,” he said.

“Most of those are either older people or poorer people. If you flick that switch and digital terrestrial goes away, then you’ve got the question of what’s going to happen to the people that you’re leaving behind. That’s what needs to be managed very carefully.”

Urban households can usually pay about $80 a month for an unlimited fibre connection, while rural areas are more likely to pay upwards of $150 monthly, in addition to any upfront hardware costs, according to the Infrastructure Commission.

Meanwhile, transmission fees are an increasingly vexing issue for broadcasters, notably publicly-owned TVNZ, as fewer and fewer viewers use their aerials, Thompson said.

“The current government is going to have to take the issue seriously and make some important decisions now in order to make sure that we’ve planned adequately.”

NZ On Air research suggests 68% of New Zealanders interacted with online video at least once a day in comparison with 50% who interacted with traditional television. The survey, run annually, reflected a decade-long rise in digital media audiences.

‘Dash to digital could leave people stranded’ – Sky

A spokesperson for pay-television provider Sky said it believed satellite was “an important transmission mechanism for many years to come”.

“As we’re seeing in other markets, for example, the UK, there is concern that the ‘dash to digital’ could leave people stranded,” they said in a statement.

“A multi-platform approach means we can ensure the delivery of content to New Zealanders right across the country, no matter their home location, life stage or financial circumstance.”

Sky added: “There is a conversation to be had about the cost of transmission and the potential migration away from digital terrestrial television in due course, and as a key player in the local market we are open to collaborating with the sector on options, and we see satellite as an important transmission mechanism for many years to come.”

‘No NZer should be left behind’ – TVNZ

A TVNZ spokesperson said: “No New Zealander should be left behind as we make the shift.

“The mass audience on linear broadcast TV is also important for local businesses who want to reach their customers and build their brands.

“Linear TV advertising generates the biggest share of TVNZ’s revenue today, and we wouldn’t consider making the switch until it’s no longer delivering value.”

It said the “timing and availability of ultra-fast broadband” would also be a consideration.

“While the coverage footprint is growing, there are still places in New Zealand where broadband isn’t available. The TVNZ Act requires us to make our content available to audiences throughout New Zealand, and we have an important lifeline utility role, so we will work alongside the Government and the wider industry to align on timing.”

They added that the company is “committed to working with Government and the industry on the transition”.

Shift comes amid turbulent media environment

The servicing of over-the-air broadcasting infrastructure would be unlikely to continue at current levels without the support of the country’s largest broadcaster.

The long-predicted shift in linear broadcasting comes amid a tumultuous time for the Crown-owned media company. Last month, TVNZ revealed it was expecting to lose up to $33 million this financial year amid a heavily depressed advertising market.

It came after the media company cancelled long-standing current affairs shows Fair Go and Sunday citing financial pressure. TVNZ hasn’t ruled out further cuts.

The revenue shortfall came as a rude awakening to the company, which said in past years it had expected more stable revenue as it pivoted to a digital future.

Meanwhile, competitor Warner Brothers Discovery reported a $32 million loss from its New Zealand business last year. It responded by cutting around 75% of its local staff, closing Newshub and significantly scaling back local productions.

Freeview was approached for comment.